In mid-October, U.S. Trade Representative Rob Portman announced that the U.S. would knock down ceilings on domestic support for farmers and tariffs on incoming goods, eliminate export subsidies, and make other concessions in order to move the World Trade Organization (WTO) negotiations forward, as long as other countries made similar moves. It would do so over a five-year period, with all tariffs, support programs and other policies removed during the next five years.

FFVA President Mike Stuart will be paying close attention to proceedings at the WTO Ministerial Conference in Hong Kong.

Whether the mutual concessions become reality is another story, and even if they do, will the actual amount of money passing from the U.S. Treasury to the hands of American agriculture change? That's one of the questions members of the agriculture industry are asking on the eve of an important meeting of the WTO in December.

Of course, whether the negotiations are successful and the changes are reflected in the 2007 Farm Bill depend on whether other players in the WTO step up to the plate. So far, there has been a bit of progress with the EU regarding domestic support, but not tariffs. And there has been no support whatsoever from Japan, which imposes higher import tariffs than either the U.S. or the E.U.

"The U.S. has come out with a pretty ambitious proposal to jump start the negotiations and show some leadership," said FFVA President Mike Stuart. "However, it hasn't been met with an overwhelming amount of response from the Europeans in particular, so it remains to be seen."

CREATING A ROADMAP

All these negotiations are part of the Doha Development Agenda, or Doha Round, talks that began in 2001 to specifically address agriculture and services. Members met in Geneva and Zurich to hammer out fundamental disagreements before gathering in Hong Kong in December for the Sixth Ministerial Conference, a meeting of WTO's highest authorities.

"Ideally, the work should be pretty much done before they get to the Ministerial meetings. If they get there with a lot of open items, that's where the risk is of it all falling apart," said Stuart.

U.S. Trade Representative Rob Portman announced in October that the U.S. was willing to make concessions in the WTO talks.

"They're going to be trying to come up with a set of parameters," he continued. "After which, they'll negotiate the final aspects of the agreement. But they can't finalize the agreement until they get this fundamental set of criteria established. That's the idea of Hong Kong. It's to come up with that road map," Stuart said.

Even if all parties agree to the rules of mutual concessions and proceed to put them in place to the satisfaction of all countries, it's still not a done deal. Every government involved, and there are about 150 of them with more who want to be admitted, must take whatever is decided back home to their "parliaments." The U.S. would need congressional approval, which is not guaranteed.

"Of course, that's pretty far down the line," said Stuart. "Right now, they just have to come to an agreement on that detailed framework for the negotiations."

TIME IS RUNNING OUT

Meanwhile, trade representatives from the U.S., the EU, Brazil, India and other parties continue trying to solve the many differences that stand in the way of progress being made in December. Time is running out before ministers from all WTO states must take the next step in Hong Kong.

And time is running out for all the country blocks to initial an end agreement. "From the U.S. standpoint, I think the deadline is the expiration of trade promotion authority, which occurs June 30, 2007," said Stuart. "They've got to have the whole deal completed and submitted to Congress by then. While that seems like a long way off, it really isn't. It's only about 21 months away."

A lot has to happen between now and then.

IMPLICATIONS ON THE FARM BILL

If the talks take place, if a framework is established, and if concessions are agreed upon, realistically, what could happen to the Farm Bill?

Some say the bill could be written in the context of international negotiations. However, the Bush administration has said it is only trying to help develop a framework for international trade. Regardless, it's realistic to say Congress is paying attention to negotiations.

Perhaps the WTO produce some actual cuts in funding generated from the bill, but more likely, a shifting of priorities could take place. Rewards for conservation efforts may be more likely, as an example, than cyclical payments that assist growers during bad markets. And loans may be more common than grants.

Most important during this process is for producers to make their voices heard as the Farm Bill is being crafted, and keep an ear on the developments in Hong Kong. Stay up to date and try to understand how the process really works. Two good web sites for news and background information are www.wto.org, also www.ustr.gov.

Farm Bill listening sessions continue to unfold. If you haven't been able to attend one in person, be sure to send in your comments to USDA by the due date, December 30, 2005. The best way to submit your comments is through USDA's Farm Bill website comment form.